BN+GIS Follow Up...
Some of the work that is being developed to give continuity to this project include some of the following aspects:
- The online implementation of the tool as an app through ArcGIS Online. The ultimate goal of the project is to provide to stakeholders and others the BN+GIS tool to help them make decisions based on its results.
- The inclusion of a superficial water body layer as a hazard variable for the Environmental Risk Assessment. This will increase the confidence of the results to provide a more realistic and trustable source of Environmental Risk assessment.
- The implementation of the model in a different O&G play, such as the Eagle Ford, Texas.
- A sensitivity analysis of the model is going to be performed under different input conditions. Several parameters of the process can be changed and manipulated before running the script, providing a different set of output maps that will respond to the variation of: (1) buffer analysis size, (2) grid size, (3) level of influence of the three input variables on the conditional probability of Environmental Sensibility, and (4) the fixed conditions of Environmental Sensibility node in diagnosis. The output maps of the BN benchmark model will provide a level of variability that can be quantified and then compared to identify which parameters are critical for the model. Therefore, this method will provide a better understanding of the practical applicability of the model and its sensitivity to the different parameters involved in the analysis. The computational time is also going to be measured to make some inferences about the Python script behavior under different settings.
- As a future scope, this project is moving towards the spatial-temporal integration of several sources of information to evaluate the site conditions of Oil and Gas (O&G) development activities, such as exploratory wells, drilling, completions and production. This evaluation is planned to be made through the harmonious implementation of Bayesian Networks, Bayesian Forecasting and Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The results can be used as a decision making instrument that provides a probabilistic approach to assess Risk scenarios through time. The major elements to be assessed are mainly environmental, societal (public perception) and economic cost, which are going to be addressed through the analysis of several spatial and temporal variables.